DAMWeather

March 6, 2026

SPC launches new 'conditional intensity outlooks' for severe thunderstorms

Forecasters with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) have a new tool in their belt to communicate the potential intensity of severe thunderstorms in the forecast. Beginning this month, the agency began issuing conditional intensity outlooks in their forecasts.

The colorful categorical outlooks we've grown familiar with won't change. The SPC will continue issuing outlooks on a five-category scale: marginal (1), slight (2), enhanced (3), moderate (4), and high (5).

Some changes under the hood will better reflect the threat posed by storms on any given day.

The SPC arrives at those categorical outlooks by assigning probabilities to the risk for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Each category is based on the greatest probability for severe weather in a particular area.

For instance, if there's a 30% probability for damaging winds and a 5% risk for large hail, the greater threat (winds) would warrant a slight (2) risk for severe weather.

Meteorologists with the SPC can also indicate when there's a risk for significant severe weather, which includes strong, long-lived tornadoes, wind gusts of 75+ mph, or hail larger than golf balls. The potential for significant severe weather was indicated by hatching on the probability maps.

Conditional intensity outlooks replace the hatching on those probability maps. Instead of one-size-fits-all, the "significant" label is now broken down into three conditional intensity groups (CIG).

You can see the breakdown in the chart above. The higher the CIG, the greater the potential for significant and potentially destructive severe weather.

CIG 1 days will be relatively common. CIG 2 days will be uncommon. The issuance of CIG 3, much like a high (5) risk, is reserved for days expected to produce a major tornado outbreak or a derecho.

Here's what the new conditional intensity outlooks look like in practice on an SPC forecast map using the infamous outbreak of April 27, 2011, as an example. The greatest threat, CIG 3, corresponds to where some of the day's strongest tornadoes touched down in Mississippi and Alabama.

This change will help meteorologists better communicate the risk for severe weather in your community. Alerting folks ahead of the potential for powerful tornadoes, destructive wind gusts, or very large hail can help them better prepare for severe weather--and take watches and warnings more seriously.

You can watch a 40-minute presentation from the SPC explaining these changes more in depth.

Follow me on Facebook | Bluesky | Instagram

Get in touch! Send me an email.

Please consider subscribing to my Patreon. Your support helps me write engaging, hype-free weather coverage—no fretting over ad revenue, no chasing viral clicks. Just the weather.

March 4, 2026

Melissa becomes the 100th retired Atlantic storm name

Experts with the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization announced this week that "Melissa" is officially retired as an Atlantic hurricane name. This is the 100th name to face retirement since the practice began in 1953.

Hurricane Melissa grew into one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes ever observed as it swirled south of Jamaica in late-October 2025, peaking with maximum sustained winds of 190 mph just before devastating parts of the island nation.

This intensity ties with 1980's Hurricane Allen as the strongest maximum sustained winds ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane.

Melissa killed several dozen people and caused more than $2 billion in damages throughout the Caribbean, with most of the damage focused in western Jamaica where the eye came ashore near peak intensity.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is responsible for standardizing official tropical cyclone names across the world's ocean basins. An annual meeting at the beginning of the year fields name retirement requests from nations that saw widespread casualties or damage from a storm.

Melissa is the 100th storm name to face retirement since the practice of regularly naming storms began back in 1953.

The modern naming system for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific began in 1979. Each basin has six lists each consisting of 21 names. One list is used every six years, so the names on deck for 2026 were last used in 2020.

Melissa will be replaced by Molly when last year's list is reused in 2031.

Out of the original pool of 126 storm names drafted back in 1979, 54 have been retired and 72 remain in use today.

'I' is the letter with the most name retirements at 13. This is mostly due to the fact that most 'I' storms develop near the peak of hurricane season when conditions are most favorable for strong hurricanes. The only letter in use without any retirements is 'V'.

[Satellite image courtesy of NOAA/CIRA]

March 2, 2026

5+ inches of rain expected as new pattern settles in this week

Dennis Mersereau 3/02/2026 02:12:00 PM drought rain Leave a Reply

A soggy and springlike pattern will develop across the eastern half of the country this week. Soaking rains are likely from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic, while record-setting temperatures are in the forecast across the southeast.

This week will see a ridge of high pressure build over the southeastern United States, which will help turn up the heat from Florida to the eastern Great Lakes. We'll see widespread highs in the 70s to lower 80s by Friday and into this upcoming weekend.

More than 200 record highs and record warm-lows are expected to tie or fall by next weekend as the warmth and humidity settle in for a lengthy stay.

This ridge will help to establish an active storm track through the center of the country, stretching from southern Texas through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic.

Forecasters expect persistent waves of showers and thunderstorms to ride along the boundaries that will set up over the region. Many of the affected areas will see several inches of rain through the end of the weekend. Portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas may see 4-5+ inches of rain from this event.

While a flooding potential will exist where too much heavy rain falls all at once, this is overall some pretty good news for areas that have seen growing drought over the past few months.

Much of the attention recently has focused on the worsening drought over Florida, but the southern Plains are feeling it hard as well.

Check out these paltry rainfall totals for meteorological winter, stretching from Dec. 1 through Feb. 28.

Dallas, Tulsa, and San Antonio only picked up 25-30 percent of their normal winter rains this past season.

This upcoming round of precipitation will help to put a dent in these deficits, kicking off the spring season on a strong note.

February 24, 2026

The Blizzard of 2026 dropped all-time record snowfall totals

Dennis Mersereau 2/24/2026 01:46:00 PM blizzard nor'easter snow Leave a Reply

The snowstorm that just buried parts of the northeastern United States will go down as a historic blizzard for the region, rivaling legendary storms like the blizzards of 1978, 2013, and 2016.

Dynamics were perfect for a classic nor'easter to develop just offshore. The system's rapid intensification drove powerful winds that created blizzard conditions at times. Intense bands of snow were fueled by ample moisture, plenty of cold air, and the intensifying storm itself.

The heaviest accumulations occurred where those relentless bands of snow remained stationary for hours at a time.

Providence, Rhode Island, 'won' the storm with a whopping 37.2 inches of snow. This swept away the city's previous all-time total of 28.6 inches set during the infamous blizzard of 1978. Records in Providence stretch back to 1904.

Islip, New York, picked up 29.1 inches of snow, setting their all-time snowstorm with records that date back to the 1940s.

Newark's Liberty International Airport reported 27.2 inches of snow by the end of the storm, coming in the number-two spot since records began there in 1931. This system fell just six-tenths of an inch shy of tying the all-time record held by the blizzard of January 1996.

Here's a look at seasonal snowfall totals across the lower 48 so far this season. This is the first winter in a long while where snow lovers haven't had much to complain about. Measurable snow has fallen in all 50 states.

Boston has picked up 60.4 inches of snow so far this season, which is well above the 36.8 inches they'd typically see through Feb. 24. New York City's Central Park has measured 42.0 inches, running well ahead of their average-to-date of 23.1 inches.

February 13, 2026

Drought covers nearly half of the U.S. this week

Dennis Mersereau 2/13/2026 11:57:00 AM drought Leave a Reply

Drought conditions continued to expand across the United States this week despite several recent winter storms that covered a large swath of the country.

Just about 46 percent of the contiguous U.S. experienced a moderate drought or worse as of Tuesday's update of the Drought Monitor. Around one-fifth of the country saw a severe or extreme drought.

Dry conditions out west are relatively straightforward, with persistent ridges of high pressure keeping dry and warm weather parked over the region for extended periods of time. Many spots throughout the Rockies and the Intermountain West are experiencing record-low snowpack as a result.

East of the Rockies, the growing drought has largely been the slow simmer of rainfall deficits building up month after month.

Take a look at Greensboro, N.C., for example, where we've fallen short of our precipitation averages every month since August.

The closest we've come to average over the past seven months was January, during which we saw several winter storms. Even then, the sleet we had on Jan. 24/25, followed by the dry and fluffy snowstorm the following weekend, couldn't make much of a dent in the deficits.

Long-range forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center don't show much relief heading into the beginning of spring. While folks across the Midwest and northern Plains may see much-needed above-average precipitation, our ongoing (but weakening) La Niña continues to favor drier-than-normal conditions across the southern half of the U.S.

February 6, 2026

Powerful cold front to sweep East Coast with frigid air, damaging winds

Dennis Mersereau 2/06/2026 12:19:00 PM cold east coast wind Leave a Reply

A very strong cold front sinking south out of Canada will send dangerously cold temperatures and potentially damaging winds sweeping toward the East Coast to start the weekend.

This will likely be the coldest air of the season for some areas in line for the deep--albeit blissfully brief--chill.

High wind warnings and wind advisories are in effect across much of the Mid-Atlantic ahead of winds that could gust 60+ mph behind the cold front's passage late Friday into Saturday. Scattered tree damage and power outages are possible.

The big story, though, is the brutal cold expected this weekend. Low temperatures on Saturday morning will dip below zero across a large portion of the Great Lakes and Northeast.

Conditions won't warm up much during the day. Many areas expecting subzero temperatures Saturday morning will struggle to climb out of the single digits or teens during the day Saturday.

Washington, D.C., may only reach 18°F for a high on Saturday. Not only would that be the coldest temperature so far this season, but it would be the coldest high recorded there since January 16, 2009.

Scranton's forecast high of about 7°F would be the coldest maximum temperature there since the high only reached 6°F on January 7, 2014.

Temperatures will take a plunge again overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, with single digits across the Megalopolis and values at or below zero throughout the interior.

Bitterly cold temperatures are expected again Sunday before the upper-level trough finally moves off toward Atlantic Canada, allowing readings to rebound a bit to start the new week.

Want some good news? The freezing line could briefly retreat toward the Canadian border during the day Wednesday, providing a reprieve for communities in line to shiver through the next couple of days.

February 3, 2026

Western U.S. snow drought reaches critical levels

Dennis Mersereau 2/03/2026 03:53:00 PM drought snow west Leave a Reply

While the eastern half of the United States basks-slash-suffers with above-average snowfall for the first time years, things aren't so rosy across the western half of the country.

The U.S. West is suffering from a historic snow drought right now.

Winter snows are life for the western states.

Not only is winter recreation a supporting economic pillar, but the region heavily relies on mountain snowpack for its water supply heading into the warmer months. Ample snowfall also provides critical hydration ahead of wildfire season.

Weather patterns across the West have been anything but favorable for snowfall this season.

Persistent ridges of high pressure have kept above-seasonal temperatures locked over the region. In fact, the northwestern, western, and southwestern climate regions recently experienced their warmest December in 131 years of recordkeeping. Average temperatures across the region came in 8-9°F above normal.

We've also seen numerous strong atmospheric rivers wash ashore. These surges of tropical moisture push warm temperatures inland, raising snow levels to the point where heavy rain falls high into the alpine.

As a result, snow cover throughout the western states is the lowest it's been in decades. The snow-water equivalent for the vast majority of the region was lower than 50 percent of normal at the start of February. Only a few spots in Wyoming, Montana, and central California kicked off the month with near-normal values.

The long-term outlook doesn't hold much news. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center calls for above-seasonal temperatures to persist through the end of this month and into the beginning of the spring.

February 2, 2026

Cold pattern has delivered snow to many eastern U.S. cities this season

Dennis Mersereau 2/02/2026 04:44:00 PM snow Leave a Reply

Many cities across the eastern half of the United States are experiencing near- or above-average snowfall totals for the first time in years.

Several sustained bursts of cold air over the past few months have provided plenty of opportunities for snowfall east of the Rockies.

A quick glance at the seasonal snowfall analysis above shows healthy snowfall totals for much of the contiguous United States so far this season.

We're just coming off a spell of three weekends in a row hosting major winter weather events.

This is the second year in a row they've recorded measurable snow in Florida--a rare feat when it happens once let alone twice. A few spots west of Tallahassee saw as much as an inch of snow on Sunday, Jan. 18.

A generational winter storm swept from Texas to Maine the following weekend, dropping significant amounts of snow and ice across an unusually large swath of the country. Boston wound up with 18.7" of snow in their largest storm in about four years.

This past weekend, another generational winter storm blanketed North Carolina with up to a foot-and-a-half of snowfall. Snowfall ground travel to a halt across communities still trying to get back to normal after the copious amount of sleet that fell the previous weekend.

All told, we're a few paces ahead of average in many cities across the east. Folks from St. Louis to Buffalo are running ahead of average through this point in the year.

The surplus may not last too much longer. February is traditionally the snowiest month of the year for much of the East Coast as nor'easters spring to life and clobber the region in heavy snows.

Current trends indicate that our below-seasonal temperatures may flip around heading into the second half of the month, which might put a damper on wintry precipitation potential through the climatological peak of the snowy season.