Stubborn pattern set to soak the southeast through early next week

It's been a soggy stretch for the south-central United States over the past week or so as rounds of heavy thunderstorms hit the region with severe weather and flash flooding.

The wet weather will continue heading into early next week—but a touch farther to the east this time. Forecasters expect widespread heavy rain across the southeastern states over the next seven days. Flash flooding is likely in areas typically vulnerable to standing or rising waters.

Check out some of those rainfall totals over the past ten days. Portions of Oklahoma, Texas, and Louisiana have seen more than 10 inches of rain—much of which fell in a relatively short period of time. Some communities in Louisiana saw more than 7 inches of rain yesterday alone.

A stalled upper-level low over the desert southwest helped fuel and spark those repeated rounds of heavy rain across the south-central states over the past week or so. 

This pattern will start to clear out a bit—and a new upper-level low will stall over the southeast, bringing cooler temperatures and a constant threat for heavy rain into the first half of next week.

While wet weather will cover much of the region from Mobile to Washington and down to Miami, the Weather Prediction Center calls for widespread totals of 4-6+ inches of rain from the northeastern Gulf toward the South Carolina Lowcountry.

Beware a risk for flooding across the usual problem areas during bouts of heavy rainfall.

Overall, though, the arrival of steady rain isn't entirely bad news. We've seen patches of moderate to severe drought from Florida to Massachusetts, with the biggest lack of rainfall found over portions of the Mid-Atlantic, coastal Carolinas, and Florida Peninsula. The impending wet pattern should put a dent in the deficit. 

[Satellite Image: NOAA]

 

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U.S. tornado count running ahead of average as mid-spring arrives

We're halfway through meteorological spring and the United States is rapidly approaching its historical peak in annual tornado activity.

Based on storm surveys conducted by meteorologists with the National Weather Service, the U.S. has racked up a preliminary count of more than 570 tornadoes between January 1 and April 30. That's a solid beat ahead of where we typically stand by this point in the year.

The vast majority of this year's tornadoes touched down in the mid-Mississippi Valley after repeated rounds of severe thunderstorms blossomed between southern Mississippi and central Illinois. 

Here's a closer look at the hardest-hit areas:

We've seen three EF-4 tornadoes—one in southern Mississippi, two in northeastern Arkansas—with the strongest coming in just below scale-topping EF-5 status with maximum estimated winds of about 190 mph. More than a dozen of this year's twisters left behind EF-3 damage, many of which hit Arkansas and Missouri.

The latest count from the Storm Prediction Center reflects about 615 preliminary tornadoes—which is likely an overcount due to multiple reports coming in for the same storm. Even so, we're outpacing tornado climatology for this point in the year due to several major outbreaks that occurred in March and April. 

Tornado activity across the U.S. ramps up in the early spring and comes to a head around the beginning of June before slowly declining through the summer as the jet stream pulls north toward Canada. I hesitate to use the term 'tornado season,' though, because tornadoes are possible any day of the year just about anywhere in the country.

[Top Image: EF-4 tornado damage in Tylertown, Miss., via the National Weather Service]

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Tornado outbreak possible in the Midwest on Monday

Monday looks to be a dangerous weather day across a wide swath of the Midwest as a favorable setup for severe thunderstorms develops over the region.

"A tornado outbreak with the potential for strong to intense tornadoes is possible on Monday," the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) said in its forecast on Saturday morning.

A low-pressure system lifting toward the international border will drag a slug of warm, unstable air across the Midwestern states, allowing widespread thunderstorms to bloom across the region.

Strong winds aloft will enable many of those storms to grow into supercells capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and strong to intense tornadoes.

Forecasters with the SPC issued a moderate risk for severe weather—a level four out of five—for a large swath of Iowa, southeastern Minnesota, as well as western and central Wisconsin.

This moderate risk area includes the cities of St. Paul and Rochester, Minnesota; Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, Iowa; and La Crosse, Wisconsin.

The cities of Minneapolis and Madison are just outside the moderate risk area by a hair, but for all intents and purposes should consider themselves in the level four risk on Monday.

An enhanced risk for severe weather—a level three out of five—radiates out from there to stretch from the international border down through eastern Kansas. In fact, Monday's threat for severe weather extends the length of the cold front from Canada to Mexico.

Severe Weather Safety

Plan in advance where you would go in the event a tornado warning is issued for your location. Mentally map out the safest part of your home, as well as where you'd duck for cover in commonly visited places like school, work, grocery stores, and while you're in your vehicle.

Ensure you have a way to receive severe weather warnings the moment they're issued. Please remember that tornado sirens are not reliable and they're not meant to be heard indoors.

Check your phone now and ensure that emergency alerts are enabled for tornado warnings. These free push alerts are a lifesaving defense against dangerous thunderstorms. The system triangulates your location based on your cell signal to determine if you're in a tornado warning. It works, and it's saved countless lives over the past decade.

Always have a backup when it comes to receiving severe weather alerts. NOAA Weather Radios are like smoke detectors for the weather. You can program these devices to sound a loud alarm the moment your county is included in a watch or warning—even when the power's out and they're running on batteries.

The NWS Is at Risk

The forecasts referenced in this article were issued by the National Weather Service, a critical federal agency that's likely responsible for directly saving more lives than just about any other office in the government. The National Weather Service costs $3 per year per taxpayer.

Free and instant lifesaving warnings, Doppler radar data, satellite imagery, computer models, and realtime observations would likely vanish if this agency were gutted. We've already seen a loss of products and experienced forecasters as a result of ongoing cuts, firings, and hiring freezes.

Please contact your representatives to urge lawmakers to save NOAA and the National Weather Service from irreparable damage.

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Maps: Days of severe weather hammer the U.S., historic flooding continues

Days and days of severe weather hammering the central United States have taken a toll. We've seen severe storms every day since March 29, with most of those days featuring an enhanced (level 3/5) risk for severe weather or higher. 

Here are a few maps highlighting the wild weather we've seen over the past week and a half.

A powerful ridge of high pressure over the southeastern U.S. sent temperatures soaring into the upper 80s throughout the region. We peaked at 88°F here in Reidsville, N.C., on Friday afternoon.

A stationary boundary on the outer periphery of that ridge served as the focus for repeated rounds of severe thunderstorms and torrential rains.

Over the past 10 days, more than a foot of rain has fallen across a wide swath of land from central Arkansas through northern Kentucky. 

A gauge near Benton, Kentucky, measured 15.59 inches of rain between 9:00 a.m. April 2 and 9:00 a.m. April 6. The airport in Little Rock, Arkansas, recorded just under a foot of rain over the same period.

This led to widespread major flooding across waterways throughout the region, with some flood gauges recording all-time high water levels.

Damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail were also a major concern. We've seen more than 500 tornado warnings issued between March 29 and April 6, the vast majority of which unfolded across the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys.

It's going to be a while before we know the tornado count or extent of damage across the region, but several EF-3+ tornadoes occurred—especially in Tennessee and northeastern Arkansas. 

During that time period, the Storm Prediction Center received 1,987 reports of severe winds or wind damage, 391 reports of large hail, and 158 tornado reports. It's worth keeping in mind that there weren't 158 tornadoes—many tornado reports can come in for the same storm.

Here's a graphic I created for The Weather Network on Saturday to highlight the persistent risk for severe weather over the past eight days:

Things will start to quiet down heading into next week as the stubborn pattern finally releases its grip and calmer conditions prevail across the eastern two-thirds of the country.

[Satellite image courtesy of NOAA.]

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Severe weather deja vu in the central U.S. brings a major flood risk

Welcome to April! Spring is in full swing across the center of the country this week as a significant severe weather threat builds into Wednesday across many of the same areas that saw damaging storms just the other day. A multi-day flash flood risk will build alongside the storms throughout the Mid-South and Ohio Valley.

Let's dive into Wednesday's severe weather risk before we tackle the flash flood threat.

Moderate Risk for Severe on Wednesday

A widespread risk for severe weather will develop through the day Wednesday across the central U.S., stretching from northern Texas northward into Michigan. The Storm Prediction Center issued an enhanced risk for severe weather–a level three out of five—for just about everyone from Dallas to Detroit, preparing the region to see storms capable of producing very strong wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes.

The SPC also issued a moderate risk for severe weather–a level four out of five–across portions of the Mississippi River and Ohio River valleys, including Memphis, Paducah, and Evansville, for an increased potential for tornadoes. Some of these tornadoes could be strong or long-lived. 

The greatest threat for severe storms will begin in the afternoon and continue well after dark.

Significant Flash Flood Risk Builds Into This Weekend

A strong ridge of high pressure setting up over the southeast will lock a boundary into place across the Mid-South and Ohio Valley. Moisture-packed southerly winds spiraling around the high will focus waves of heavy rain along this boundary.

As a result, we'll see a major flash flood threat build through this weekend. Forecasters expect as much as 10-15 inches of rain to fall along a stretch of real estate from near Little Rock to near Louisville. A very large swath of 5-10 inches of rain radiates out from that bullseye to cover many major cities throughout the region.

Severe Weather Safety

Flash flooding is exceptionally dangerous. Most flash flood deaths occur in vehicles. Never attempt to drive across a flooded roadway. It's impossible to tell how deep the water is until it's too late, and it takes very little moving water to lift up a vehicle and carry it away.

Make a plan in advance where to go in the event a tornado warning is issued for your location. Mentally map out the safest part of your home, as well as where you'd duck for cover in commonly visited places like school, work, grocery stores, and while you're in your vehicle.

Ensure you have a way to receive severe weather warnings the moment they're issued. Please remember that tornado sirens are not reliable and they're not meant to be heard indoors.

Check your phone now and ensure that emergency alerts are enabled for tornado warnings. These free push alerts are a lifesaving defense against dangerous thunderstorms. The system triangulates your location based on your cell signal to determine if you're in a tornado warning. It works, and it's saved countless lives over the past decade.

Always have a backup when it comes to receiving severe weather alerts. NOAA Weather Radios are like smoke detectors for the weather. You can program these devices to sound a loud alarm the moment your county is included in a watch or warning—even when the power's out and they're running on batteries.

 

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Supercells with large hail possible around Seattle, Portland on Wednesday

Supercell thunderstorms with very large hail could develop across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon. While severe thunderstorms usually happen in Washington and Oregon every year, the severity of the storms expected on Wednesday could rival the upper bounds of what folks in this area are used to seeing.

Warm temperatures at the surface, combined with a strong upper-level trough swooping ashore, will lead to widespread instability across much of Washington and Oregon by Wednesday afternoon.

Thunderstorms bubbling up amid the instability will find enough wind shear throughout the atmosphere to turn severe. Some of these thunderstorms could develop into supercells, which are storms with rotating updrafts that allow the storm to grow stronger and last longer than a 'regular' thunderstorms.

Damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado or two are possible in the strongest storms that develop on Wednesday. While all modes of severe weather are possible, the greatest threat by far will be the potential for large hail, especially along the I-5 corridor between Seattle and Eugene.

Forecasters with the Storm Prediction Center painted a 15% risk for significant hail across the region. Hail is considered "significant" when it's about the size of a hen egg (2.00 inches in diameter) or larger.

The SPC says that supercells here could produce hailstones 2.00 to 2.50 inches in diameter. This is more than enough to cause serious injury, smash up cars, and do serious damage to homes.

Hail this large is exceptionally rare in the Pacific Northwest.

Since 2003, we've seen 16,642 reports of hail 2.00+ inches in diameter across the United States. Just 15 of those reports came from Oregon, and only 5 of those instances were reported in Washington.

Including reports of golf ball size hail (1.75 inches in diameter) brings the total number of significant hail reports in Oregon up to 94, and raises that number up to 24 in Washington. Despite the jump in numbers, all of those significant hail reports came in east of the Cascades—none within the I-5 corridor itself.

Please take this threat seriously if you're under a risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.

Falling hail can seriously injure or kill you. Hailstones the size of golf balls and hen eggs typically fall at 70 mph—and they often travel faster if there are high winds involved.

Try to avoid getting caught in a vehicle during a severe thunderstorm. If you're in a vehicle when hail starts to fall, cover up with anything available—coats, blankets, sunshades, anything that may protect you from shattered glass, flying debris, and the hail itself.

If you're at home when a severe thunderstorm arrives, stay away from doors and windows no matter how tempting it may be to watch the storm. Hailstones blowing in the wind and bouncing around can easily shatter windows, send debris into the air, and even hit you.

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Deadly severe weather outbreak lived up to its potential

A multi-day severe weather outbreak that unfolded across the central and southern United States over the past couple of days certainly lived up to its deadly potential.

There's a chorus of naysayers after every high-risk severe weather event who say the forecast was a bust and the event didn't live up to the "hype."

National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologists will spend the next couple of days surveying the damage left behind by Friday's and Saturday's storms. It's safe to say that it was an impactful and memorable severe weather event.

The New York Times reported on Sunday morning that at least 36 people died in the storms as they ripped through the region, and the vast majority of those fatalities occurred in tornadoes. 

Friday's event saw hundreds of damaging wind reports throughout the Midwest as squall lines shoved strong winds down to the surface. Multiple tornadoes touched down from Arkansas to Indiana, and it's likely that several of those tornadoes were significant EF-2s or stronger.

The bulk of Friday's severe weather occurred within the Storm Prediction Center's (SPC) moderate risk area, which is a level four out of five on the categorical scale used to measure the risk for severe thunderstorms. 

Saturday saw a high risk for severe weather—a level five out of five—across portions of Alabama and Mississippi, with a level four moderate risk radiating out from Louisiana to Georgia.

While Saturday's severe weather wasn't as prolific as what we saw on Friday, there were still multiple destructive tornadoes in and around the high-risk area. It's likely that we'll see more confirmed tornadoes than what appears in the storm reports map above once the NWS finishes its storm surveys this week.

The SPC issues severe weather risks based on storm coverage, storm intensity, and forecaster confidence. High risk days are very rare. Saturday was only the 66th day since Jan. 1, 2000, that we've seen a high risk issued. All the dynamics were in place Saturday for significant tornadoes to develop in any thunderstorms that took full advantage of the environment. 

Much like the internet has warped our senses of time, space, and each other, the constant reliving of previous outbreaks seems to color our view of predicted severe weather events. 

More bluntly, as one meteorologist said on Bluesky: "Just because you didn’t get your disaster porn in a heavily populated area doesn’t mean the forecast was a bust. Some of y’all need therapy."

No two events are ever alike. Generational outbreaks are called generational outbreaks for a reason. All the warning lights were blinking red for Friday's and Saturday's events—and, sadly, the setup delivered.

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High-risk tornado outbreak expected in the Deep South on Saturday

A rare 'high risk' for severe weather—a level five out of five—is in effect for a swath of the Deep South on Saturday as a dangerous thunderstorm setup sweeps across the region.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) only issues one or two high risk areas every year. This means that forecasters are confident in the likelihood of a tornado outbreak across the affected areas.

URGENT: The National Weather Service is a lifesaving public resource. We must save it.

The Setup and Risk

A powerful low-pressure system rolling across the center of the country unleashed deadly severe thunderstorms Friday and through the overnight hours. Multiple tornadoes and widespread wind damage were reported from Texas to Minnesota.

That setup is pushing east to start the weekend, with a second and even more intense round of severe thunderstorms expected through the day Saturday.

Strong instability and ample wind shear should give rise to widespread severe thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon. Conditions are favorable for these storms to quickly turn into supercells capable of producing intense, long-track tornadoes, as well as destructive wind gusts and hail the size of golf balls or larger. 

While all modes of severe weather are possible, the greatest concern remains the tornado threat. If today's risk lives up to its potential, this could be a high-end outbreak with multiple intense tornadoes in and around the moderate and high risk areas.

Potential Hiccups

Tornado outbreaks are relatively rare for a reason. These devastating events require all the ingredients aligning just right to spawn significant severe weather. It appears that all those ingredients are in place in the right sequence today.

But sometimes things don't work out as expected. What are the potential modes of failure today?

Forecasters expect multiple dangerous supercells to roll across the moderate and high risk areas, bringing with them a threat for significant tornadoes. However, it's not out of the realm of possibility that we could see thunderstorms quickly align into one or more squall lines, in which case the predominant threat would transition to widespread damaging winds with the potential for embedded tornadoes.

Existing cloud cover across the region could rob the atmosphere of some of the instability it needs to allow thunderstorms to flourish across areas under the highest risk for severe weather. This appears less likely given the storms already bubbling up at the time of this post's publication.

That said—all the warning lights are blinking red. This is a serious threat and folks in the region should pay close attention to the weather and ensure they've got a way to stay safe if dangerous conditions threaten.

Severe Weather Safety

Make a plan in advance where to go in the event a tornado warning is issued for your location. Mentally map out the safest part of your home, as well as where you'd duck for cover in commonly visited places like school, work, grocery stores, and while you're in your vehicle.

Ensure you have a way to receive severe weather warnings the moment they're issued. Please remember that tornado sirens are not reliable and they're not meant to be heard indoors.

Check your phone now and ensure that emergency alerts are enabled for tornado warnings. These free push alerts are a lifesaving defense against dangerous thunderstorms. The system triangulates your location based on your cell signal to determine if you're in a tornado warning. It works, and it's saved countless lives over the past decade.

Always have a backup when it comes to receiving severe weather alerts. NOAA Weather Radios are like smoke detectors for the weather. You can program these devices to sound a loud alarm the moment your county is included in a watch or warning—even when the power's out and they're running on batteries.

The NWS Is At Risk

The forecasts referenced in this article were issued by the National Weather Service, a critical federal agency that's likely responsible for directly saving more lives than just about any other office in the government. The National Weather Service costs $3 per year per taxpayer.

Free and instant lifesaving warnings, Doppler radar data, satellite imagery, computer models, and realtime observations would likely vanish if this agency were gutted. Please contact your representatives to urge lawmakers to save NOAA and the National Weather Service from irreparable damage.

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