Dangerous cold, potentially historic southern winter storm on tap this week

The heart of winter's here.  

A lobe of the polar vortex swooping down toward the southern latitudes is responsible for spilling dangerously cold temperatures across the United States to begin the week.

We're also on the lookout for a potentially historic winter storm across the Gulf Coast—because hey, why not.  

Brutal Cold Descending

The polar vortex is a circulation of winds that wraps around the Arctic. A strong polar vortex acts like a moat that keeps winter's coldest air confined to the Arctic. When the polar vortex weakens, it becomes wavy and allows troughs to dig south, opening the floodgates for bitterly cold temperatures to pour southward. 

One of those troughs is steadily making its way across the United States this weekend. The associated frigid air is likely to make Monday one of the United States' coldest days in years.

Single-digit daytime highs are likely throughout the Midwest, with high temperatures in the 30s stretching all the way to the Gulf Coast.

Monday night is going to be downright brutal for most of the country. 

Low temperatures early Tuesday morning should dip below zero for a vast swath of the U.S. We'll even see morning low temperatures in the 30s reach as far west as Phoenix and California's Central Valley. Subfreezing temperatures are likely as far south as Florida.  

Speaking of Florida...

Major Southern Winter Storm Brewing

A low-pressure system will develop over Texas on Monday and move over the Gulf of Mexico through the day, bringing a rare bout of winter weather to the northern Gulf Coast through early Tuesday.

When I say rare, I mean rare. The most snow ever recorded in New Orleans in modern history was 2.7" back in 1963. Mobile hasn't seen more than about 3 inches of snow in living memory. This event is going to rival those historic snows. 

The National Weather Service calls for a blanket of snow to fall from eastern Texas through eastern North Carolina, with communities on the Florida Panhandle—yes, Florida—expecting several inches of snow through Monday night. 

We're not just talking about snow, either. 

A significant amount of freezing rain is in the forecast for portions of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia. Some areas could see 0.10" to 0.25" of ice accretion from freezing rain, which is enough to lead to tree damage and widespread power outages.

This is a big deal for the south. Plows, salt trucks, snow shovels, and ice scrapers are virtually non-existent in this part of the world. This is going to be a high-impact, extremely disruptive storm for the region.

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Southern California faces another 'particularly dangerous situation' fire risk this week

Another round of high winds with very low humidity levels prompted forecasters to issue a 'particularly dangerous situation' (PDS) red flag warning for portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties through much of Tuesday and Wednesday.

We'll see another Santa Ana wind event develop across portions of southern California beginning early Tuesday morning and continuing through Wednesday afternoon. Wind gusts of 55-70 mph are possible in some areas. While this isn't quite as severe as the Santa Ana wind event we saw last week, it's more than enough to fuel extreme fire behavior throughout the region.

“Areas in the red flag warning (especially during the PDS time frame) will have a high risk for large fires with very rapid fire spread, extreme fire behavior, and long range spotting," the National Weather Service said in its red flag warning on Monday.

The high-risk nature of this event prompted forecasters to add the wording "particularly dangerous situation" to the red flag warning draped across the region. This phrase, which is more commonly seen during severe thunderstorm outbreaks, emphasizes the threat to life and property posed by any fires that spark during these favorable conditions.

Santa Ana winds develop when high pressure to the east forces winds to blow up and over the Transverse Ranges that border the Los Angeles basin. These winds warm up and dry out as they descend the mountains and rush toward the coast, helping foster the rapid spread of ongoing fires as well as the easy ignition of new blazes.

Two major fires continued to burn throughout the Los Angeles metro area to start the week.

The Palisades Fire, located just west of Santa Monica, grew to 23,713 acres as of Monday afternoon, with the blaze only 13 percent contained.

The Eaton Fire, located just north of Pasadena, grew to 14,117 Acres as of Monday afternoon with crews managing to bring it to about 33 percent containment.

A resurgence of high winds and low humidity will likely fuel the growth and spread of these fires over the next couple of days—not to mention any additional fires that may spark during the red flag warnings.

Please remain alert for rapidly changing conditions over the next couple of days if you're in an area prone to wildfires. Take extra care not to engage in any activities that could accidentally spark an out-of-control blaze, including stuff like flicking cigarettes on the ground and parking your vehicle on dry grass.

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Widespread Southern Snowfall Expect Thursday Through Saturday

The bread 'n' milk meter is spiking this week as a decent winter storm looks to bring a widespread blanket of snowfall from northern Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. 

We'll see the system develop over Texas early on Thursday, spreading east through Friday and Saturday. 

Some areas could see 6-8 inches of snow from the system. A crust of ice is possible across a large swath of the region, as well. The wintry weather will cause major airline delays and highway travel trouble into the beginning of the weekend.

A low-pressure system developing over Texas early Thursday will have plenty of cold air to work with as it gets its act together. The combination of cold air from the north and moisture streaming in from the Gulf of MEXICO (🙃) will produce widespread winter weather to end the week.

The National Weather Service has already issued an array of winter weather alerts across the affected regions. Expect winter storm watches to spread east into the Carolinas and Virginia over the coming hours.

Instead of focusing all its efforts on a small swath, we're instead going to see this low-pressure system spread its snowfall over a very wide area. 2-4 inches of snow is a good bet from the Red River to the Ohio Valley, and east toward the Delmarva Peninsula.

A band of 4-6 inches of snow is likely from central Arkansas east across much of Tennessee and northern Alabama, including Little Rock, Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, and Huntsville. Localized totals of 6-8 inches are possible, especially in central Arkansas and at higher elevations like Chattanooga. 

Sleet may mix in and cut down on snowfall accumulations on the southern end of the system..

Freezing rain is the predominant concern from central Texas through eastern North Carolina, including the Atlanta and Charlotte metro areas, where up to one-quarter of an inch of ice is possible. Very slick roads are likely in the affected areas, along with the potential for falling tree limbs and power outages. 

Any snow in the south is a big deal—many communities lack the driving skills and physical equipment to handle winter road conditions—but especially so because we haven't really seen much snow south of the Mason-Dixon line in recent winters.

Huntsville, Alabama, hasn't seen more than 3 inches of snow in one storm in nearly ten years. It's been three years since the last time we've had more than an inch of snow in the N.C. cities of Greensboro, Raleigh, and Charlotte. The last time Atlanta saw more than an inch of snow was in January 2018. 

Temperatures will remain chilly behind the system, allowing some of the snow and ice to stick around longer than it usually does after a southern winter storm.

(NOTE: The maps in this article were updated at 5:00 p.m. Wednesday.)

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One major winter storm winds down, another late-week storm is in the works

One storm down, (at least) one more to go. This next storm could be the best opportunity for southern snow we've had in a while. 

The major winter storm that rolled across the United States this weekend brought hefty snowfall totals and significant freezing rain to a wide swath of the country. 

The highest snowfall total reported to the National Weather Service was 18" near Saint George, Kansas, where the storm unleashed blizzard conditions that resulted in drifts several feet deep. 

A widespread blanket of 6-12 inches of snow fell east of there, with most major cities from Kansas City to Baltimore seeing ankle-deep accumulations—more than enough to shutter schools and cancel thousands of flights to start the week. 

That storm is on its way out, now, and we're on the lookout for the next storm hot on its heels. 

A model image showing the upper-levels of the atmosphere on Thursday afternoon. (Tropical Tidbits)

Our next system will develop courtesy of a deep upper-level trough trudging across the Rocky Mountains later this week. We'll see a low-pressure system develop in southern Texas late Thursday into early Friday and move toward the northern Gulf of Mexico.

And that's where the fun begins.

Well, "fun." 

At this point, it's likely we'll see winter weather from the northern half of Texas east toward the Atlantic seaboard. The type of weather we see—what type of precipitation, how much, and where—will entirely depend on the track the low-pressure system takes as it lifts north and east out of Texas.  

An inland track would be a mess—slight shifts of a dozen or so miles north or south would push the rain/ice/snow line accordingly. This could leave some major cities vulnerable to a wide range of possibilities, which would be tough to narrow down until the system is only a day or two away.

A track closer to the coast could turn this into a major snowstorm from the southeast to New England, with some areas along the I-95 corridor north of Richmond potentially getting slammed with heavy snowfall.

Which track is favored? It's still too early to tell. It sounds like a cheap answer, I know, but it's the truth! So many little factors will play into what ultimately happens, and winter storms in this part of the country always walk a fine line between "no big deal" and "shut everything down." 

But if you're in Dallas, Birmingham, Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, Washington—you get the idea—this is a storm to watch. Keep a close eye on the forecasts over the next couple of days, and prepare for potential travel disruptions.

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Major winter storm set to snarl travel from Kansas City to Philly

Plenty of folks from Kansas to New Jersey are looking at their first winter storm of the season, which is slated to bring a significant swath of wintry precipitation from Kansas City to Philadelphia. Severe thunderstorms are possible on the southern side of the system.

The Setup

An upper-level trough rolling over the Rockies will spark the development of a low-pressure system over the Texas Panhandle on Saturday night. The low, drawing on moisture from the south, will develop in a hurry and bring a wide swath of wintry precipitation from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic.

This is going to be a formidable and memorable winter storm for some areas. Portions of the Midwest could see more than a foot of snow by the end of this system, while communities just south could see enough freezing rain to cause widespread power outages and tree damage.

We often talk about the track of a winter storm because a few miles to the north or the south could make a dramatic difference in whether communities get hammered by snow, coated in ice, or soaked in a cold rain.

This is a high-stakes forecast because so many major cities are right on the delicate line between snow, ice, and rain. The track of this storm will be key—if it tracks 20 miles north or south of where meteorologists currently expect, it would drag the swaths of heavy snow and freezing rain along with it. That's a bad prospect when so many big cities are perilously close to the lines between snow, ice, and rain.

Timing

The storm will begin developing over the central Plains by Saturday night. We'll see widespread snow and ice envelop Kansas and Missouri through the overnight hours, continuing into Sunday night around St. Louis. 

Snow and ice will spread across Illinois and Indiana through Sunday morning, continuing throughout the day and into the nighttime hours across the region. Expect significant icing across southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and much of Kentucky through Sunday and into Sunday night.

Precipitation will start crossing the Appalachians by Sunday evening, with snow beginning across D.C., Baltimore, and Philadelphia overnight into Monday. This is likely going to be an all-day event Monday.

On the southern side of the system, severe thunderstorms are likely to get going on Sunday afternoon and continue through the overnight hours into early Monday morning. Nocturnal severe thunderstorms are especially dangerous as people tune out the weather and head to bed. Make sure you have a way to receive warnings the moment they're issued if you're in the area.

Accumulations

As of Friday afternoon, the National Weather Service calls for a significant swath of heavy snow from central Kansas to southern New Jersey.

Kansas City, St. Louis, Indianapolis, Washington, and Baltimore all stand to see 6 or more inches of snow from this system. Some communities in northern Kansas and the northern half of Missouri could see more than 12 inches of snow through this weekend.

This much snow will be more than enough to make travel nearly impossible during the height of the storm. School, government, and business closures are almost certain on Monday and Tuesday, especially across the Mid-Atlantic.

Severe Thunderstorm Risk

Severe thunderstorms are a common risk during winter storms tracking across the middle of the country. Unstable air on the southern end of the low-pressure system will fuel thunderstorms across the Deep South. 

The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds as storms form along a cold front pushing from Texas to Alabama. Embedded tornadoes within that squall line can't be ruled out. 

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Reality check: What we do and don't know about the looming cold snap

A surge of cold air looming over the eastern half of the United States has social media buzzing with the possibility of frigid temperatures and wintry precipitation.

We're really going to endure a spell of colder-than-normal temperatures through at least the first half of January. There’s also a real chance for widespread snow and ice during this period. Here’s a look at how much of the chatter is just that—chatter—and how much is legit. 

The Setup

The upper-level pattern for the past couple of weeks has featured a ridge over the eastern half of North America with a trough over the western half of the continent.

Ridges foster sinking air, which warms up and dries out as it descends toward the ground. Troughs allow for colder temperatures and more unsettled conditions as they force air to rise.

We’re going to see this pattern flip around heading into the first week of January, with broad troughing developing over the eastern halves of the U.S. and Canada. This will send eastern temperatures dipping below normal as we experience a phenomenon known as cross-polar flow—which is exactly what the name implies. 

A model image of the upper atmosphere on January 7, 2025. (Tropical Tidbits)

In the model image above, you can see a broad trough over the east while a sharp ridge builds over the West Coast. Most of the lines are parallel from far Northern Canada all the way to the southeastern U.S., opening the floodgates for Arctic air to pour southward by the second week of January.

As a result, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is extremely confident that we’ll have below-normal temperatures through the first half of January. The agency gives 80-90+ percent odds of below-normal readings between January 7th and January 13th. 

Reality Check

What does this mean for you? Here’s a look at average high and low temperatures for any given January 10th for a few eastern cities:

If we get temperatures coming in 10 degrees below normal, we’re looking at days hovering around the freezing mark in New York and D.C., while it’s a brisk winter’s day for places like Memphis and Atlanta.

There are hints in the models that we’re going to get temperatures much colder than 10 degrees below seasonal. It’s still too soon to place exact numbers on daytime highs and nighttime lows, but it’s possible that we could have the opportunity for single-digit or even subzero readings to dip pretty far south for a day or two.

And then there’s the elephant in the room: snow. Any chance for snow is a big deal south of the Mason-Dixon line, especially in places like North Carolina where it’s been two years since our last shovelable snowfall.

This type of pattern is favorable for one or more low-pressure systems to develop in the southern states and move toward the East Coast. Snow and ice are a decent possibility with cold air already in place.

We’re still more than a week from this pattern settling into place. It’s far too early to say who could see snow, sleet, or freezing rain, let alone detailing any accumulations. 

The heart of winter is on its way. Prepare for an extended period of chilly conditions with opportunities for wintry precipitation thrown in the mix. Keep up with the latest forecasts and make sure you’re prepared to stay warm—and possibly even shovel some snow.

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Cloud streets billow over the Atlantic behind a powerful cold front

There's always something cool bubbling in our skies above. It's worth taking a peek at satellite imagery every day to see what nifty features you can spot floating around.

A powerful cold front brought frigid temperatures to much of the eastern U.S. and Canada this weekend. New York City dropped to 15°F on Sunday morning, while Toronto made it all the way down to 0°F—the city's coldest morning in nearly two years.

All that frigid air spilled over the relatively warm Atlantic Ocean. Air in contact with the surface of the ocean warmed up and rose through the Arctic airmass above, producing countless cloud streets tracing the winds as they flowed across the ocean. It's the same principle that gives rise to bands of lake-effect snow off the Great Lakes. You can even see thicker bands of clouds flowing off Chesapeake Bay and Delaware Bay. 

Here are some links if you want to add them to your bookmarks:

• GOES-East Full Disk
• GOES-East U.S.
• GOES-West Full Disk
• GOES-West U.S.

Happy cloudgazing. 

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How are the Appalachians ten degrees warmer than lower elevations today?

There's a fascinating temperature profile across the Appalachian Mountains today thanks to winds interacting with the region's rolling terrain.

It's a raw and chilly day across the Piedmont today as daytime high temperatures struggled to break above the 50-degree mark from central Virginia all the way down into northern Georgia. 

Meanwhile, it's a comfortable afternoon high in the Appalachian Mountains, where temperatures are easily 10+ degrees warmer. Asheville was 61°F at 2:00 p.m. while Greensboro was shivering at 51°F. 

A model image showing winds a few thousand feet above the surface on Monday afternoon. (IMAGE: Tropical Tidbits)

What's the deal?

Strong southwesterly winds are blowing through the interior southeast and the Ohio Valley this afternoon as a low-pressure system tracks through the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, we have a strong center of high pressure over the Northeast that's blowing cold air in from the north.

These chilly northerly winds are slamming into the side of the Appalachian Mountains and forcing that cold air to pool up at lower elevations. This is the infamous cold air damming we see so often this time of year.

The cold air is just shallow enough that it's sitting below the mountain ridges, allowing those warm southwesterly winds to rise over the cold air and blow over the peaks of the Appalachians.

Eventually, we'll see the cold air damming erode through Tuesday morning, allowing daytime temperatures to soar into the mid-60s at lower elevations. 

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