"We're gonna get our airplane washed."
The pilots of Delta Air Lines Flight 191 knew that they were heading into
rough weather as they approached Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport on
the muggy afternoon of August 2, 1985.
Approaching the airfield from the north, Flight 191 and its 163 souls aboard
entered a heavy thunderstorm. "Tower, Delta 191 Heavy, out here in the rain,
feels good," the captain said in one of his last transmissions to air traffic
control.
Rain pelted the aircraft as it made its final approach. Just
under 1,000 feet above the ground, a sudden wind shift reduced the flight's
forward speed, prompting the flight crew to spool up the engines and attempt a
go-around.
The last-minute effort didn't work. Flight 191 came down in a field about a
mile short of the runway, skidding across a highway before disintegrating in a
fireball in a wreck that killed 135 people.
Regulations are written in blood, the old saying goes. So are safety systems.
Commercial airline safety has advanced to the point where fatal crashes are exceptionally rare. The January 2025 crash of a regional jet into the
Potomac River was the United States' first deadly commercial accident in
almost 14 years, an unprecedented stretch in aviation history.
Many of the systems and procedures that safely guide nearly 10 million
scheduled passenger flights across the United States each year are in place
today because of horrible tragedies like Flight 191 back in 1985.
We know now that microbursts are a deadly hazard to aircraft during takeoff
and landing. A microburst is a sudden wind that blows downward out of the base
of a thunderstorm. Winds in a microburst spread out when they impact the
ground to create intense and localized wind shear.
If an airplane flies through a microburst, the sudden wind shift can cause a
critical loss of airspeed that may result in a stall and eventual crash. This
is what triggered the crash sequence of Flight 191.
Dr. Theodore Fujita, inventor of the eponymous tornado rating scale,
didn't limit his studies to tornadoes. After the microburst-induced 1975 crash
of Eastern Airlines Flight 66 at New York's JFK Airport, Dr. Fujita teamed up with scientists at the National Centers for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to
intensely study the processes behind microbursts.
The team's findings directly contributed to the safety of the global airline
industry. Airlines initially resisted, but the tragedy in Dallas was the final
straw that prompted major changes.
Soon after, scientists and engineers developed onboard radar systems capable
of detecting low-level wind shear like the type produced by a microburst. This
information can help pilots quickly respond to rapid weather changes and keep
the aircraft safe.
Studying microbursts may sound like dry turkey to people who aren't interested
in meteorology. But Fujita's endeavor with NCAR has directly saved countless
lives, potentially including yours, in the decades since their groundbreaking
research.
NCAR is a driving force behind meteorological research and discovery. Scientists
who work for the organization are key in developing the science of
meteorology, the study of Earth's climate, and numerous other scientific fields on our planet and beyond.
Just this year, high-level press releases from NCAR touted:
- studies in advanced weather models to improve forecast accuracy and range
- the formation of hailstones
- the mechanisms behind turbulence
- atmospheric rivers that drench the West Coast
- the structural impacts of freezing rain
- rainfall trends that can affect the very crops that feed our country
The Trump administration announced this week that they plan to dismantle NCAR,
accusing the entity of being a vehicle for "climate alarmism."
Officials with NCAR
released a short, cautious statement
regarding the announcement.
NSF NCAR’s research is crucial for building American prosperity by protecting lives and property, supporting the economy, and strengthening national security. Any plans to dismantle NSF NCAR would set back our nation’s ability to predict, prepare for, and respond to severe weather and other natural disasters.For an overview of how our research benefits the nation, visit our Research Works website.
Tuesday's announcement was met with widespread shock and condemnation
throughout the weather community, even from traditionally conservative voices
who generally support the Trump's administration's slash-and-burn practices.
The administration's desire to fragment and squash weather and climate
research was telegraphed long before the president won his second term.
Project 2025, the blueprint off of which Trump's team is working to reshape
American society, very clearly outlined its vision for the future of weather
forecasting and research [see pages 674 and 675].
The plan explicitly calls to "break up NOAA," going on to state:
NOAA consists of six main offices. [...] Together, these form a colossal operation that has become one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry and, as such, is harmful to future U.S. prosperity. This industry’s mission emphasis on prediction and management seems designed around the fatal conceit of planning for the unplannable. That is not to say NOAA is useless, but its current organization corrupts its useful functions. It should be broken up and downsized.
The document also calls for the full and complete privatization of the
National Weather Service, handing over its duties to companies such as
AccuWeather:
The NWS provides data the private companies use and should focus on its data-gathering services. Because private companies rely on these data, the NWS should fully commercialize its forecasting operations.
Trump's team has radically transformed the federal government over the past
year, from pushing out hundreds of thousands of employees to completely shutting down entire agencies.
But we shouldn't treat the destruction of NCAR as a fait accompli.
This administration has backed down in the face of strong and persistent
opposition. Cracks in steadfast support of the White House are also beginning
to show among the Republican majorities in Congress, especially as the
president's approval ratings sink toward all-time lows.
Contact your representatives and senators and urge them to oppose the
administration's plan to dismantle NCAR, NOAA, and the National Weather
Service. Raise awareness about the issue with your family and friends so they can do the same.
Weather affects us all. We
don't know how good we have it compared to just a few generations ago.
Advancing the science of meteorology isn't liberal or conservative, it's
common sense. Fight for your forecast--and the research that makes it
possible.
[Flight 191 wreckage photo via NTSB/Wikimedia Commons]
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