Coastal flooding likely as blustery storm meanders off the East Coast

A developing storm is set to cause major problems for coastal communities up and down the eastern seaboard beginning this weekend, threatening high winds and flooding throughout the region.

Some meteorologists are calling this the most impactful storm to hit parts of the region in over a decade, with near-record coastal flooding possible in spots. 

An upper-level trough over the southeast is spinning up a low-pressure system off the coast of Florida to end the week. We'll see this system move up the coast toward North Carolina with very heavy rainfall and gusty winds heading into the weekend. 

This storm isn't moving anywhere in a hurry. A ridge of high pressure over New England and Eastern Canada will force the system to meander just off the coast.

The tight pressure gradient between the low and that high pressure to the north will fuel ripping winds directed at the Mid-Atlantic shoreline, which could easily exceed 60 mph at times.

Blustery conditions could lead to power outages from the Delmarva north through Long Island. Persistent winds pushing ashore will also lead to a risk for widespread coastal flooding from Jacksonville, Florida, all the way up north of Boston. 

Many of the affected areas could essentially see a one- to two-foot storm surge later this weekend and into the day Monday. Significant beach erosion and closed roads are also possible.

Despite the hazards, it's worth noting that this is not a tropical system—a storm doesn't need a name to cause major disruptions.

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Drought continues to spread across the United States

It's not just your imagination—it's been an unusually dry couple of months across the United States.

The latest update of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM) on Oct. 7 showed 73 percent of the country mired in abnormally dry or full-on drought conditions. This includes much of the Intermountain West, as well as vast swaths of the southeast, Midwest, and New England. 

Compare that map to the one from June 3:

Big difference!

The most significant degradation has occurred along and east of the Mississippi River. Persistent ridges of high pressure suppressed thunderstorm activity and shunted weather systems around the region. A near-complete lack of landfalling tropical systems has also contributed to the rainfall deficit, especially across the southeast.

Only a few areas have seen drought improve between the beginning of June and the start of October, including the northern half of the Plains and portions of Texas and the desert southwest.

Forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center don't see much improvement on the way over the next couple of weeks. Only a few areas, such as southern Florida and the Pacific Northwest, have better-than-even odds of above-normal precipitation heading into the back half of autumn.

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North Dakota tornado upgraded to EF-5, the first in 12 years

The first confirmed EF-5 tornado in 12 years occurred in North Dakota back in June, according to an official report from the National Weather Service issued on Monday.

Estimated winds greater than 210 mph occurred within the mile-wide tornado as it churned near Enderlin, North Dakota, late in the night on June 20, 2025. Enderlin is about 40 miles southwest of Fargo.

Officials teamed up with wind damage experts across the U.S. and Canada to study the damage and make the final determination.

"The tornado derailed 33 train cars including 19 fully-loaded grain hopper cars and 14 empty tanker cars, mainly tipped from the track," the report stated.

A photo of the EF-5 damage near Enderlin, North Dakota. Photo courtesy NWS/Aaron Rigsby

"It was in this train derailment location that EF-5 damage intensity was noted with greater than 210 mph winds listed officially for this tornado."

EF-5 tornadoes are exceptionally rare—this is only the 60th confirmed scale-topping twister in the U.S. since 1950, and the first since the devastating storm that hit Moore, Oklahoma, on May 20, 2013. 

It's difficult for officials to find EF-5 damage because few structures can withstand winds close to 200 mph. Experts often have to rely on context clues to arrive at an EF-5 rating, such as studying foundation hardware or the lofting of exceptionally heavy items, as they did this time around in North Dakota.

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Hurricane Gabrielle's rapid intensification fits right in with this decade's major hurricanes

Hurricane Gabrielle rapidly intensified into a category four storm Monday as it passed east of Bermuda.

The storm is now the twentieth (!) major hurricane to undergo at least one period of rapid intensification since the turn of the decade. 

Gabrielle's maximum sustained winds jumped from 75 mph (65 knots) to 140 mph (120 knots) in a 24-hour period between Sunday evening and Monday evening.

This nearly doubles the criteria needed to qualify for rapid intensification, which occurs when a storm's winds increase at least 30 knots within 24 hours. 

This Atlantic season is now two-for-two on hurricanes rapidly intensifying into major storms. Hurricane Erin grew into a scale-topping Category 5 back in August.

Favorable conditions allowed Gabrielle to rapidly gather strength through the day Monday, including unusually warm waters east of Bermuda and upper-level winds helping to vent air away from the core of the growing hurricane.

While the storm is moving east away from the United States and Canada, it may pose a threat to land within the next couple of days.

Officials issued a hurricane watch for the Azores as Gabrielle approaches the region later this week. The National Hurricane Center expects the system to cross the archipelago at hurricane strength late on Thursday. Damaging winds, storm surge flooding, large swells, and flooding rains are possible as Gabrielle hits the region.

Direct hurricane strikes are relatively rare in the Azores. Hurricane Lorenzo brushed the western islands in 2019. Hurricane Alex moved over the islands as an exceptionally rare January hurricane in 2016. Two hurricanes both named Gordon (really!) struck the region in 2012 and 2006. 

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Experts warn that Atlantic hurricane season could rev up after a quiet stretch

Experts with Colorado State University are explicitly warning folks not to write off this year's Atlantic hurricane season yet. Even though the ocean basin has been completely calm through the historic peak of the season, signs point toward renewed activity in the weeks ahead.

This year's Atlantic hurricane season began with forecasters broadly expecting above-normal activity across the basin. Warm sea surface temperatures and other favorable conditions seemed to suggest bustling activity.

We had a slow start to the year, then a monster in Category 5 Hurricane Erin, and then the basin fell silent again. What gives?

The team at CSU recently released a detailed analysis of the first half of this year's hurricane season. Factors that have kept the basin exceptionally quiet include dry air, a stable atmosphere, vertical wind shear, and suppressed waves rolling off the western coast of Africa.

They added: "We do anticipate the season picking up, however, given that large-scale conditions appear to become more tropical cyclone-favorable later in September." 

We're only halfway through this year's Atlantic hurricane season. The historic climax in activity usually occurs around September 12, which is the point we've seen—on average—about half the season's accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). 

Quiet seasons are a mixed bag. On one hand, it's great that we haven't seen any disruptive or destructive storms this far. On the other hand, though, an extended stretch without any tropical activity may lull coastal residents into a false sense of security.

Some of recent history's most impactful storms formed and hit land through the end of September and into October—Helene and Milton among them just last year. 

Don't let your guard down yet. We've still got a long way to go.

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Watch the Atlantic Ocean cool down in Hurricane Erin's wake

Hurricane Erin is long gone—but its memory lives on in the Atlantic. The storm left noticeably cooler sea surface temperatures in its wake, a testament to the size and power of the hurricane as it moved through the region.

The storm rapidly intensified into a scale-topping Category 5 on Saturday, August 16, as it began a long recurve through the western half of the basin.

Even after it weakened, Erin steadily grew into an unusually large hurricane for the region. The extent of the hurricane's tropical storm force winds stretched nearly 600 miles across as it passed offshore of North Carolina on Thursday, Aug. 21.

Strong and sizeable hurricanes like Erin churn up the ocean something fierce—evidenced by the intense waves and rip currents felt along the coats as it skirted the U.S. and Canada. 

All that churning on the surface induces upwelling of cooler water from deep within the ocean. We can see the results of upwelling in sea surface temperature anomalies. 

Here's what the western Atlantic looked like on Friday, Aug. 15, the day before Erin rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane:

And here's what those sea surface temperature anomalies looked like by Friday, Aug. 22, after Erin more than doubled in size and recurved out to sea:

That's quite the difference!

Here's an animated look at sea surface temperature anomalies each day between Aug. 15 and Aug. 24:

Upwelling left in the wake of passing hurricanes is usually temporary, with sea surface temperatures bouncing back within a few weeks. The phenomenon can rob future storms of the ability to intensify if they happen to pass over the region. This process also plays an important role for the environment, drawing key nutrients from the depths to the surface to replenish the local environment. 

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Hurricane Erin remains a large storm and it continues expanding

Tropical storm warnings are in place for many coastal communities across North Carolina and southeastern Virginia as Hurricane Erin brushes past the region.

While the core of the storm will remain far offshore, Hurricane Erin is a very large system and it continues to grow larger as it begins its ever-hastening recurve out to sea.

Forecasters at 11:00 a.m. on Wednesday found that Erin's tropical storm force winds extended 265 miles from the center of the storm, while hurricane force winds extended 90 miles from the center of the storm. 

That's unusually large by Atlantic standards—and it'll continue to grow its footprint over the next couple of days.

Erin's maximum sustained winds of 110 mph almost seem disconnected from its deep minimum central pressure of 941 mb. Hurricanes can spend their energy (so to speak) on intensity and size, with one usually coming at the expense of the other. This storm's very deep minimum pressure is translating to size rather than packing all that energy into a tight, powerful core. 

A ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to guide Erin to the north, and then northeast, over the next couple of days, allowing the storm to recurve safely out to sea.

Despite its offshore track, the storm's sheer size may allow tropical storm force winds to buffet portions of the North Carolina and Virginia coastlines. These areas could see power outages, tree damage, as well as coastal flooding and beach erosion from storm surge and high surf.

Rip currents are likely up and down the East Coast this week as Erin passes through the region. 

Image courtesy of NOAA.

A rip current is a strong current of water that pulls away from the beach and out to sea. Rip currents don't pull you under like you see in movies—they quickly pull you away from the shore. Many folks get caught in rip currents because these hazards look like appealing calm spots amid an otherwise choppy ocean.

The best way to avoid a rip current is to simply stay out of the water if red flags are hoisted on the beach. If you're ever caught in a rip current, don't panic! Exhaustion can lead to drowning. Calmly signal for help. If you know how to swim, swim parallel to the coastline until the rip current stops dragging you out to sea, then swim back to shore. 

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Watches issued for N.C. as powerful Hurricane Erin grows in size

Hurricane Erin remained a powerful Category 4 storm on Monday as the system puttered along east of The Bahamas. 

Tropical storm watches and storm surge watches are in effect for portions of North Carolina's Outer Banks as forecasters expect the storm to grow in size as it recurves through the middle of the week.

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows Erin steadily moving northwest through the beginning of the week before turning north by midweek as it starts to swing around a ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic.

Even though the storm's center should remain far offshore, the storm's sheer size could bring dangerous conditions ashore for North Carolina's Outer Banks late Wednesday through the day Thursday.

A tropical storm watch is in effect from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, N.C., while a storm surge watch is in effect from Cape Lookout to Duck, N.C. 

The system has steadily grown in size since it reached peak strength as a Category 5 hurricane on Saturday with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. (I wrote about some of the astounding stats behind Erin's rise to scale-topping intensity over at The Weather Network, check it out!) 

Hurricane Erin will continue to expand its footprint over the next couple of days, growing into an exceptionally large storm by the beginning of the week. This growth could bring tropical storm force winds ashore across the Outer Banks, and the storm's immensity will help generate a potentially dangerous storm surge along the coast.

The NHC's forecast at 5:00 p.m. Monday called for storm surge up to 4 feet above ground level across much of the Outer Banks, with 1 to 3 feet of inundation as far south as Myrtle Beach, S.C., and as far north as the Delmarva Peninsula. 

Storm surge flooding is seawater pushed inland by the force of persistent winds. Storm surge is more likely with large storms like Hurricane Erin. Any westward deviation in the track will make coastal flooding more likely.

Rip currents and high waves are likely up and down the East Coast this week as Erin passes through the region. 

Image courtesy of NOAA.

A rip current is a strong current of water that pulls away from the beach and out to sea. Rip currents don't pull you under like you see in movies—they quickly pull you away from the shore. Many folks get caught in rip currents because these hazards look like appealing calm spots amid an otherwise choppy ocean.

The best way to avoid a rip current is to simply stay out of the water if red flags are hoisted on the beach. If you're ever caught in a rip current, don't panic! Exhaustion can lead to drowning. Calmly signal for help. If you know how to swim, swim parallel to the coastline until the rip current stops dragging you out to sea, then swim back to shore. 

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