Atmospheric river threatens several inches of rain across California

A potent system approaching the West Coast will produce ample rainfall across most of California over the next couple of days, with the highest mountain peaks in the Sierra potentially in line for up to two feet of snow.

Forecasters are watching a sharp trough digging through the eastern Pacific Ocean to end this week. Precipitation will begin washing into northern California and the Bay Area through the first half of Thursday, gradually spreading south and east into the day.

Rain will reach southern California by early Friday morning, with sustained precipitation streaming across the region straight through Saturday and likely into the first half of Sunday.

This system will coat every square inch of California in at least some rainfall, with the bulk of the state's population expecting at least one inch of rain through this weekend. 

Many areas will see much higher totals. 1-2 inches of rain is in the cards for most of the Central Valley, with higher totals in the Sierra foothills. The mountains proper could see up to 5 inches of precipitation, some of which will fall as snow above 8,500 feet or so.

Los Angeles could see 3-4 inches of rain by the end of the weekend. For some context, the weather station in downtown Los Angeles only averages 0.78 inches of rain in a typical November, and the site averages 14.25 inches of rain each year.

Unsurprisingly, there's a widespread risk for flooding. A flash flood watch is in effect from Yosemite Valley down to the San Emigdio Mountains south of Bakersfield, with additional flash flood watches likely throughout southern California in the coming days.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall could cause rivers and streams to quickly rise. Flash flooding and landslides are especially possible on and around burn scars.

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Hurricane Melissa reaches Category 5 intensity, setting new records

Hurricane Melissa intensified into a scale-topping Category 5 storm just south of Jamaica early Monday morning. Forecasters expect the storm to remain near peak strength as it begins to curve north and makes landfall on the island nation within the next 24-36 hours.

Melissa achieved this rare feat by taking advantage of favorable atmospheric conditions and exceptionally warm water temperatures throughout the northern Caribbean Sea. This is the only storm to track through the Caribbean so far this year.

This is the third Category 5 hurricane this year. Only one other Atlantic season has recorded more than two Category 5 storms—2005, which saw four scale-toppers in Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.

This is the seventh Category 5 storm we've seen in the past three years, a historic stretch since records began back in 1850.

This is the thirteenth Category 5 storm in the past decade, also a historic stretch since reliable records began.

Melissa is also on track to become the strongest storm to ever strike Jamaica. The previous recordholder is 1988's Hurricane Gilbert, which made landfall near Kingston with 130 mph winds.

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Devastating flooding, wind damage expected as Hurricane Melissa targets Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensified from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in about 24 hours as the system churns over the extremely warm waters of the northern Caribbean Sea.

The storm, which is just south of Jamaica, will slowly move over the island nation over the next couple of days. Widespread and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides are likely, along with devastating wind damage and a destructive coastal storm surge.

Widespread Damage Likely

Ask any meteorologist their worst-case scenario for a high-end landfalling hurricane and a situation like Hurricane Melissa will probably rank high up on the list. 

Melissa is about as strong as an Atlantic hurricane can get and it's moving at a snail's pace toward Jamaica, a heavily mountainous island that's home to millions of people.

Whether the storm reaches Jamaica as a Category 4 or a Category 5 on Monday and Tuesday, the effects will be devastating for the region.

A constant surge of tropical moisture streaming across the heavily mountainous island will produce rainfall totals of 20-30 inches, with some communities possibly picking up more than 40 inches of rain through Tuesday night. 

This absolute glut of water will lead to widespread and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides; think about what happened in western North Carolina during Helene last year, and double it several times over. 

Extreme, long-duration winds will destroy many homes and businesses along the path of the eyewall. Utility outages will likely last for months in the hardest-hit areas. Trees will be defoliated and vast swaths of cropland will be destroyed.

The NHC says a storm surge of 9 to 13 feet is possible as Melissa makes landfall, an inundation of seawater that will cause major damage to coastal communities east of where the eye makes landfall.

After crossing Jamaica, the hurricane will pass over eastern Cuba with flash flooding and wind damage. Melissa will begin accelerating to the northeast from there, potentially threatening Bermuda at hurricane strength later this week.

A season of high-end hurricanes

As I wrote last week, this has been a very strange hurricane season. This year's activity has been all-or-nothing, with storms that either struggled mightily or just reached for the stars.

We've had five hurricanes this year:

• Erin: Category 5, 160 mph peak
• Gabrielle: Category 4, 140 mph peak
• Humberto: Category 5, 160 mph peak
• Imelda: Category 2, 100 mph peak
• Melissa, Category 4, 140 mph peak (so far)

Since 1850, only one other Atlantic hurricane season has recorded more than two Category 5 storms. (The other was 2005 with Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.)

Extremely warm waters and favorable atmospheric conditions allowed Melissa to undergo a period of explosive intensification between Saturday and Sunday, growing from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in just 24 hours. 

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Tropical Storm Melissa may threaten the Greater Antilles as a hurricane

Tropical Storm Melissa formed in the Caribbean Sea on Tuesday morning. A weak pattern around the storm will force it to meander toward Haiti and Jamaica over the next few days, where it could pose a major threat for flash flooding and landslides.

Melissa developed from a vigorous tropical wave that took its time traversing the Atlantic Ocean over the past week or so.

It's a disheveled storm this afternoon, with the low-level center of circulation displaced from its thunderstorm activity to the east. This disorganization will prevent it from strengthening much in the short term.

While the storm is facing some disruptive wind shear right now, steering currents around the storm will collapse later this week. As a result, Melissa will slow to a crawl as it approaches the Greater Antilles. This slow and somewhat erratic movement means that the storm's future track is more uncertain than usual. 

A hurricane watch is in effect for Haiti's Tiburon Peninsula (full disclosure: I had to google the name for that), while a tropical storm watch is in effect for all of Jamaica. 

Extensive flash flooding and landslides are possible on top of the gusty winds as the storm slowly moves through the region. 

Water temperatures across the Caribbean are very warm for mid-October. Melissa is the region's first tropical system this year, shutting out the possibility of no tropical systems in the Caribbean for the first time since 1997.

The strong winds of tropical storms and hurricanes churn up the ocean surface and induce upwelling of cold waters. Caribbean waters haven't really had the opportunity to overturn, so to speak, given the lack of tropical systems so far this year.

It's worth noting that a slow-moving storm getting its act together over steamy ocean waters can lead to more strengthening than anticipated.

[Satellite image courtesy of NOAA.]

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Checking in on the strange 2025 Atlantic hurricane season

We're more than halfway done with this year's Atlantic hurricane season and...well, it's been a weird one so far.

The ocean basin has produced 11 named storms through Oct. 12. This year's storms have pretty neatly fallen into two groups so far—they've either struggled mightily, or absolutely reached for the stars. 

Out of those 11 named storms, four grew into hurricanes. Erin and Humberto reached category five intensity, Gabrielle was a solid category four, and Imelda reached category two strength.

A favorable atmospheric setup has kept all but one of those storms away from the continental United States. Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall in South Carolina with 60 mph winds during the overnight hours on Sunday, July 6. Otherwise, nine out of the ten remaining storms recurved out into the open Atlantic.

We haven't even seen any tropical systems in the Caribbean by this point in the season, a testament to the strength and placement of ridges of high pressure over the central Atlantic. If these ridges were stronger or farther west, the waves that grew into storms like Erin and Humberto may have travelled farther south into the Caribbean instead.

How does this season stack up compared to normal?

An average Atlantic hurricane season produced 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. We're pretty much on track to see a near-normal season, assuming we see another storm or two over the next couple of weeks. 

Even this year's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is near normal. ACE is a metric meteorologists use to gauge the true intensity of a hurricane season, accounting for the strength and longevity of a season's storms. A stronger storm that lasts longer will produce higher ACE values than a weak, short-lived system.

So far this season, we've seen an ACE value of 96.2, which was 92.4% of normal for Oct. 11. Erin, Humberto, and Gabrielle account for more than 80% of that energy, which really throws it back to how every storm this season has either struggled or excelled.

The season isn't over yet. Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30, and we've seen plenty of high-end storms form through the end of October and into November. We'll have to start looking closer to home—in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico—for storm formation as we enter these final weeks of the season. 

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Coastal flooding likely as blustery storm meanders off the East Coast

A developing storm is set to cause major problems for coastal communities up and down the eastern seaboard beginning this weekend, threatening high winds and flooding throughout the region.

Some meteorologists are calling this the most impactful storm to hit parts of the region in over a decade, with near-record coastal flooding possible in spots. 

An upper-level trough over the southeast is spinning up a low-pressure system off the coast of Florida to end the week. We'll see this system move up the coast toward North Carolina with very heavy rainfall and gusty winds heading into the weekend. 

This storm isn't moving anywhere in a hurry. A ridge of high pressure over New England and Eastern Canada will force the system to meander just off the coast.

The tight pressure gradient between the low and that high pressure to the north will fuel ripping winds directed at the Mid-Atlantic shoreline, which could easily exceed 60 mph at times.

Blustery conditions could lead to power outages from the Delmarva north through Long Island. Persistent winds pushing ashore will also lead to a risk for widespread coastal flooding from Jacksonville, Florida, all the way up north of Boston. 

Many of the affected areas could essentially see a one- to two-foot storm surge later this weekend and into the day Monday. Significant beach erosion and closed roads are also possible.

Despite the hazards, it's worth noting that this is not a tropical system—a storm doesn't need a name to cause major disruptions.

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Drought continues to spread across the United States

It's not just your imagination—it's been an unusually dry couple of months across the United States.

The latest update of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM) on Oct. 7 showed 73 percent of the country mired in abnormally dry or full-on drought conditions. This includes much of the Intermountain West, as well as vast swaths of the southeast, Midwest, and New England. 

Compare that map to the one from June 3:

Big difference!

The most significant degradation has occurred along and east of the Mississippi River. Persistent ridges of high pressure suppressed thunderstorm activity and shunted weather systems around the region. A near-complete lack of landfalling tropical systems has also contributed to the rainfall deficit, especially across the southeast.

Only a few areas have seen drought improve between the beginning of June and the start of October, including the northern half of the Plains and portions of Texas and the desert southwest.

Forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center don't see much improvement on the way over the next couple of weeks. Only a few areas, such as southern Florida and the Pacific Northwest, have better-than-even odds of above-normal precipitation heading into the back half of autumn.

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North Dakota tornado upgraded to EF-5, the first in 12 years

The first confirmed EF-5 tornado in 12 years occurred in North Dakota back in June, according to an official report from the National Weather Service issued on Monday.

Estimated winds greater than 210 mph occurred within the mile-wide tornado as it churned near Enderlin, North Dakota, late in the night on June 20, 2025. Enderlin is about 40 miles southwest of Fargo.

Officials teamed up with wind damage experts across the U.S. and Canada to study the damage and make the final determination.

"The tornado derailed 33 train cars including 19 fully-loaded grain hopper cars and 14 empty tanker cars, mainly tipped from the track," the report stated.

A photo of the EF-5 damage near Enderlin, North Dakota. Photo courtesy NWS/Aaron Rigsby

"It was in this train derailment location that EF-5 damage intensity was noted with greater than 210 mph winds listed officially for this tornado."

EF-5 tornadoes are exceptionally rare—this is only the 60th confirmed scale-topping twister in the U.S. since 1950, and the first since the devastating storm that hit Moore, Oklahoma, on May 20, 2013. 

It's difficult for officials to find EF-5 damage because few structures can withstand winds close to 200 mph. Experts often have to rely on context clues to arrive at an EF-5 rating, such as studying foundation hardware or the lofting of exceptionally heavy items, as they did this time around in North Dakota.

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