Hurricane Gabrielle's rapid intensification fits right in with this decade's major hurricanes

Hurricane Gabrielle rapidly intensified into a category four storm Monday as it passed east of Bermuda.

The storm is now the twentieth (!) major hurricane to undergo at least one period of rapid intensification since the turn of the decade. 

Gabrielle's maximum sustained winds jumped from 75 mph (65 knots) to 140 mph (120 knots) in a 24-hour period between Sunday evening and Monday evening.

This nearly doubles the criteria needed to qualify for rapid intensification, which occurs when a storm's winds increase at least 30 knots within 24 hours. 

This Atlantic season is now two-for-two on hurricanes rapidly intensifying into major storms. Hurricane Erin grew into a scale-topping Category 5 back in August.

Favorable conditions allowed Gabrielle to rapidly gather strength through the day Monday, including unusually warm waters east of Bermuda and upper-level winds helping to vent air away from the core of the growing hurricane.

While the storm is moving east away from the United States and Canada, it may pose a threat to land within the next couple of days.

Officials issued a hurricane watch for the Azores as Gabrielle approaches the region later this week. The National Hurricane Center expects the system to cross the archipelago at hurricane strength late on Thursday. Damaging winds, storm surge flooding, large swells, and flooding rains are possible as Gabrielle hits the region.

Direct hurricane strikes are relatively rare in the Azores. Hurricane Lorenzo brushed the western islands in 2019. Hurricane Alex moved over the islands as an exceptionally rare January hurricane in 2016. Two hurricanes both named Gordon (really!) struck the region in 2012 and 2006. 

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Experts warn that Atlantic hurricane season could rev up after a quiet stretch

Experts with Colorado State University are explicitly warning folks not to write off this year's Atlantic hurricane season yet. Even though the ocean basin has been completely calm through the historic peak of the season, signs point toward renewed activity in the weeks ahead.

This year's Atlantic hurricane season began with forecasters broadly expecting above-normal activity across the basin. Warm sea surface temperatures and other favorable conditions seemed to suggest bustling activity.

We had a slow start to the year, then a monster in Category 5 Hurricane Erin, and then the basin fell silent again. What gives?

The team at CSU recently released a detailed analysis of the first half of this year's hurricane season. Factors that have kept the basin exceptionally quiet include dry air, a stable atmosphere, vertical wind shear, and suppressed waves rolling off the western coast of Africa.

They added: "We do anticipate the season picking up, however, given that large-scale conditions appear to become more tropical cyclone-favorable later in September." 

We're only halfway through this year's Atlantic hurricane season. The historic climax in activity usually occurs around September 12, which is the point we've seen—on average—about half the season's accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). 

Quiet seasons are a mixed bag. On one hand, it's great that we haven't seen any disruptive or destructive storms this far. On the other hand, though, an extended stretch without any tropical activity may lull coastal residents into a false sense of security.

Some of recent history's most impactful storms formed and hit land through the end of September and into October—Helene and Milton among them just last year. 

Don't let your guard down yet. We've still got a long way to go.

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Watch the Atlantic Ocean cool down in Hurricane Erin's wake

Hurricane Erin is long gone—but its memory lives on in the Atlantic. The storm left noticeably cooler sea surface temperatures in its wake, a testament to the size and power of the hurricane as it moved through the region.

The storm rapidly intensified into a scale-topping Category 5 on Saturday, August 16, as it began a long recurve through the western half of the basin.

Even after it weakened, Erin steadily grew into an unusually large hurricane for the region. The extent of the hurricane's tropical storm force winds stretched nearly 600 miles across as it passed offshore of North Carolina on Thursday, Aug. 21.

Strong and sizeable hurricanes like Erin churn up the ocean something fierce—evidenced by the intense waves and rip currents felt along the coats as it skirted the U.S. and Canada. 

All that churning on the surface induces upwelling of cooler water from deep within the ocean. We can see the results of upwelling in sea surface temperature anomalies. 

Here's what the western Atlantic looked like on Friday, Aug. 15, the day before Erin rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane:

And here's what those sea surface temperature anomalies looked like by Friday, Aug. 22, after Erin more than doubled in size and recurved out to sea:

That's quite the difference!

Here's an animated look at sea surface temperature anomalies each day between Aug. 15 and Aug. 24:

Upwelling left in the wake of passing hurricanes is usually temporary, with sea surface temperatures bouncing back within a few weeks. The phenomenon can rob future storms of the ability to intensify if they happen to pass over the region. This process also plays an important role for the environment, drawing key nutrients from the depths to the surface to replenish the local environment. 

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Hurricane Erin remains a large storm and it continues expanding

Tropical storm warnings are in place for many coastal communities across North Carolina and southeastern Virginia as Hurricane Erin brushes past the region.

While the core of the storm will remain far offshore, Hurricane Erin is a very large system and it continues to grow larger as it begins its ever-hastening recurve out to sea.

Forecasters at 11:00 a.m. on Wednesday found that Erin's tropical storm force winds extended 265 miles from the center of the storm, while hurricane force winds extended 90 miles from the center of the storm. 

That's unusually large by Atlantic standards—and it'll continue to grow its footprint over the next couple of days.

Erin's maximum sustained winds of 110 mph almost seem disconnected from its deep minimum central pressure of 941 mb. Hurricanes can spend their energy (so to speak) on intensity and size, with one usually coming at the expense of the other. This storm's very deep minimum pressure is translating to size rather than packing all that energy into a tight, powerful core. 

A ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to guide Erin to the north, and then northeast, over the next couple of days, allowing the storm to recurve safely out to sea.

Despite its offshore track, the storm's sheer size may allow tropical storm force winds to buffet portions of the North Carolina and Virginia coastlines. These areas could see power outages, tree damage, as well as coastal flooding and beach erosion from storm surge and high surf.

Rip currents are likely up and down the East Coast this week as Erin passes through the region. 

Image courtesy of NOAA.

A rip current is a strong current of water that pulls away from the beach and out to sea. Rip currents don't pull you under like you see in movies—they quickly pull you away from the shore. Many folks get caught in rip currents because these hazards look like appealing calm spots amid an otherwise choppy ocean.

The best way to avoid a rip current is to simply stay out of the water if red flags are hoisted on the beach. If you're ever caught in a rip current, don't panic! Exhaustion can lead to drowning. Calmly signal for help. If you know how to swim, swim parallel to the coastline until the rip current stops dragging you out to sea, then swim back to shore. 

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Watches issued for N.C. as powerful Hurricane Erin grows in size

Hurricane Erin remained a powerful Category 4 storm on Monday as the system puttered along east of The Bahamas. 

Tropical storm watches and storm surge watches are in effect for portions of North Carolina's Outer Banks as forecasters expect the storm to grow in size as it recurves through the middle of the week.

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows Erin steadily moving northwest through the beginning of the week before turning north by midweek as it starts to swing around a ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic.

Even though the storm's center should remain far offshore, the storm's sheer size could bring dangerous conditions ashore for North Carolina's Outer Banks late Wednesday through the day Thursday.

A tropical storm watch is in effect from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, N.C., while a storm surge watch is in effect from Cape Lookout to Duck, N.C. 

The system has steadily grown in size since it reached peak strength as a Category 5 hurricane on Saturday with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. (I wrote about some of the astounding stats behind Erin's rise to scale-topping intensity over at The Weather Network, check it out!) 

Hurricane Erin will continue to expand its footprint over the next couple of days, growing into an exceptionally large storm by the beginning of the week. This growth could bring tropical storm force winds ashore across the Outer Banks, and the storm's immensity will help generate a potentially dangerous storm surge along the coast.

The NHC's forecast at 5:00 p.m. Monday called for storm surge up to 4 feet above ground level across much of the Outer Banks, with 1 to 3 feet of inundation as far south as Myrtle Beach, S.C., and as far north as the Delmarva Peninsula. 

Storm surge flooding is seawater pushed inland by the force of persistent winds. Storm surge is more likely with large storms like Hurricane Erin. Any westward deviation in the track will make coastal flooding more likely.

Rip currents and high waves are likely up and down the East Coast this week as Erin passes through the region. 

Image courtesy of NOAA.

A rip current is a strong current of water that pulls away from the beach and out to sea. Rip currents don't pull you under like you see in movies—they quickly pull you away from the shore. Many folks get caught in rip currents because these hazards look like appealing calm spots amid an otherwise choppy ocean.

The best way to avoid a rip current is to simply stay out of the water if red flags are hoisted on the beach. If you're ever caught in a rip current, don't panic! Exhaustion can lead to drowning. Calmly signal for help. If you know how to swim, swim parallel to the coastline until the rip current stops dragging you out to sea, then swim back to shore. 

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Hurricane Erin's dangerous waves, rip currents likely to hit U.S. East Coast

Erin strengthened into a hurricane on Friday morning as the storm gradually makes its way west across the open Atlantic Ocean. Forecasters expect the storm to continue growing into a powerful Category 4 storm this weekend as it skirts north of the Lesser Antilles and starts a delicate recurve.

While the storm is unlikely to make a direct hit on the United States, dangerous waves and rip currents are likely up and down the East Coast this weekend and into early next week. Rip currents are a deadly hazard to beachgoers, claiming many lives every year even under clear and sunny skies.

A reconnaissance flight through Erin this morning found that the storm strengthened into the season's first hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. It's a tiny storm—hurricane force winds only extend about 25 miles from the center—but it'll gradually grow in the days ahead.

Conditions are favorable for Erin to intensify into a major hurricane, and possibly into a powerful Category 4 storm, by this weekend. While the core of the storm should miss the Leeward Islands, Erin's outer bands could still bring tropical storm conditions to islands like Barbuda and St. Martin on Saturday.

We'll likely see Erin thread the needle between Bermuda and the Carolinas next week as a ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic weakens, providing a pathway for the storm to turn northward and begin to recurve. It's still too early to tell if the system will have any impacts on Atlantic Canada.

Image courtesy of NOAA.

Dangerous waves and rip currents will be the greatest hazards for the East Coast starting this weekend and stretching well into next week.

A rip current is a strong current of water that pulls away from the beach and out to sea. Rip currents don't pull you under like you see in movies—they quickly pull you away from the shore. Many folks get caught in rip currents because these hazards look like appealing calm spots amid an otherwise choppy ocean.

The best way to avoid a rip current is to simply stay out of the water if red flags are hoisted on the beach. If you're ever caught in a rip current, don't panic! Exhaustion can lead to drowning. Calmly signal for help. If you know how to swim, swim parallel to the coastline until the rip current stops dragging you out to sea, then swim back to shore. 

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Tropical Storm Erin set to become Atlantic's first hurricane of 2025

Tropical Storm Erin formed off the Cabo Verde Islands on Monday. The storm is set to become the first hurricane—and possibly the first major hurricane—of the 2025 Atlantic season later this week.

A vigorous tropical wave rolling off the coast of Africa got its act together in a hurry as it emerged over the warm waters of the eastern Atlantic Ocean, quickly organizing into the season's fifth named storm. 

Like all storms that originate in the Cabo Verde region, this is going to be an 8-10+ day marathon watching this storm march west across the Atlantic basin. 

Environmental conditions are favorable for steady intensification in the days to come.

The National Hurricane Center expects Erin to gradually strengthen over the next five days, with the agency's forecast explicitly calling for a major hurricane in the central Atlantic by Wednesday.

These long-duration storms cause quite the anxiety spike among coastal residents who are constantly refreshing weather pages in hopes of learning more about the system's next move.

Unfortunately, it's far too soon to say exactly where the storm will track beyond next weekend. We can look at signals in the models to get an idea of where it may track beyond the end of the NHC's five-day forecast. 

Most tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic are steered along by large ridges of high pressure parked over the center of the ocean. The strength and placement of these highs dictate how far west they travel before they begin to recurve. (Some storms don't recurve at all.)

A model image showing ridges and troughs in the upper atmosphere on Friday evening. SOURCE: Tropical Tidbits

A stronger high-pressure system will allow the system to move farther west, posing a greater threat to the U.S. and Atlantic Canada. A weaker high provides more opportunities for the storm to recurve north and out to sea. 

Right now, signals in the models show decent odds that a weaker high will probably allow Erin to recurve and track near Bermuda before turning out to sea. However, there's plenty of time for things to change. Very small changes in the near-term can have big long-term effects in a storm's track.

We're coming up on the peak of hurricane season. Tropical Storm Erin's impending marathon is a good reminder that folks who live in coastal states and provinces should be ready for storms well before a threat is on the horizon.  

[Satellite image courtesy of NOAA.]

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Tropical Storm Dexter limps out to sea as more systems try to form

Folks along or near the coast should start paying attention to the tropics as forecasters monitor several areas for potential development over the next week.

Tropical Storm Dexter formed between North Carolina and Bermuda on Sunday night. This system is what meteorologists sometimes nickname a "fish storm" because it'll stay out to sea and away from land. Dexter remains weak and it'll likely lose its tropical characteristics in the next day or so as it moves northeast through the open Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center highlighted two additional areas for potential development over the next five to seven days—one off the southeastern U.S., and another far out in the central Atlantic. 

A low-pressure system is likely to form offshore from the southeastern states later this week. Conditions may be favorable for this system to develop tropical characteristics, and its proximity to the coast will require special attention for any potential impacts from rain, wind, storm surge, or rip currents.

Another disturbance in the eastern Atlantic could slowly develop as it heads toward the center of the basin through next weekend. Forecasters give this feature a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression.

While it's far too early to talk about potential intensity, we'll have to watch the strength of high pressure over the northern Atlantic for signs about its future track. A weaker high is more favorable for a recurve out to sea, while a stronger high could allow the system to push west toward land.

Season is progressing a little ahead of average pace

Despite narratives like "sluggish start" and "quiet so far," this year's Atlantic hurricane season is actually tracking a step ahead of normal compared to the progress of an average season in the basin.

So far this year, we've seen Andrea (June 24), Barry (June 28), Chantal (July 4), and Dexter (August 3). We're about a week and a half ahead of the pace of an average Atlantic hurricane season, and we'll jump even farther ahead if one or both of those disturbances organizes into a tropical storm. 

All that is to say—don't fall into a false sense of security because it feels quieter than the busy seasons we've seen in the past few years. It only takes one storm making landfall to turn even the slowest season into a major ordeal.

What's in a name?

This is the first time we've used Dexter as a storm name in the Atlantic basin. The World Meteorological Organization picked Dexter as the replacement for Dorian after that name was retired following the 2019 hurricane season.

If you're curious (of course you are!), I have a whole page devoted to hurricane name history and statistics at my other website. 

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