Soon-to-be Tropical Storm Sara brewing in the Caribbean
A robust tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea is on the cusp of growing into a tropical storm. This system, which would earn the name Sara, is forecast to bring extensive flooding to Honduras before potentially entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week.
The National Hurricane Center began issuing forecasts for ‘Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen’ on Wednesday. This mouthful of a designation allows the NHC to issue watches and warnings for a disturbance before it formally becomes a tropical system, giving folks on land extra time to prepare for dangerous conditions.
Tropical storm and hurricane watches are in effect for the northern coast of Honduras as this system approaches the region.
Soon-to-be Sara is currently a cluster of disorganized thunderstorms over the western Caribbean. The disturbance is in a favorable environment to develop and strengthen over the next couple of days.
The Caribbean is home to the warmest waters in the entire Atlantic basin, with sea surface temperatures hovering in the upper 80s. As a result, the storm could be close to hurricane strength as it approaches the northern coast of Honduras this weekend.
A large ridge of high pressure over the southeastern United States will cut off the storm’s ability to immediately turn north, forcing it to linger around Honduras for several days. This is why the below forecast track looks like such a hot mess—the storm will remain in the same general vicinity for about 48 hours.
Forecasters noted that this forecast is tough right now because 1) the storm has yet to form, and 2) it’s going to be very close to land, which introduces its own uncertainty in terms of the storm’s ultimate strength.
Regardless of its intensity, the stalling storm will produce flooding rains across Honduras’ highly vulnerable terrain. Widespread rainfall totals of 10 to 20+ inches are expected throughout northern Honduras, which could lead to “life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides,” according to the NHC.
The remaining question: where will it go from here?
Most weather models show the ridge breaking down by late this weekend as a strong trough digs across the United States, allowing the storm to finally begin pulling away from Honduras and toward Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. This track would pull the system (or its eventual remnants) into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week.
A northeasterly turn toward Florida is likely given the potent trough that’ll swing into the region early next week. It’s way too early to know what kind of impacts this storm or its remnants could have on the state, but it’s something to keep in mind heading into the weekend.
Make sure your hurricane preparedness kits and plans are still ready to go in case this storm threatens hazardous conditions next week.
