Experts warn that Atlantic hurricane season could rev up after a quiet stretch

This year’s Atlantic hurricane season began with forecasters broadly expecting above-normal activity across the basin. Warm sea surface temperatures and other favorable conditions seemed to suggest bustling activity.

We had a slow start to the year, then a monster in Category 5 Hurricane Erin, and then the basin fell silent again. What gives?

The team at CSU recently released a detailed analysis of the first half of this year’s hurricane season. Factors that have kept the basin exceptionally quiet include dry air, a stable atmosphere, vertical wind shear, and suppressed waves rolling off the western coast of Africa.

They added: “We do anticipate the season picking up, however, given that large-scale conditions appear to become more tropical cyclone-favorable later in September.” 

We’re only halfway through this year’s Atlantic hurricane season. The historic climax in activity usually occurs around September 12, which is the point we’ve seen—on average—about half the season’s accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). 

Quiet seasons are a mixed bag. On one hand, it’s great that we haven’t seen any disruptive or destructive storms this far. On the other hand, though, an extended stretch without any tropical activity may lull coastal residents into a false sense of security.

Some of recent history’s most impactful storms formed and hit land through the end of September and into October—Helene and Milton among them just last year. 

Don’t let your guard down yet. We’ve still got a long way to go.

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