Powerful spring storm threatens tornadoes, damaging winds this week

Widespread severe thunderstorms, winter weather, and damaging winds are likely over the next couple of days as a powerful low-pressure system develops across the center of the country. 

This storm could come close to breaking some monthly pressure records across the Midwest. Even if it falls just short, this intense Colorado low will run the table with just about every type of active weather through midweek. 

A strong jet stream snaking across the middle of the United States is giving rise to a powerful low-pressure system over eastern Colorado. This system will steadily intensify as it makes its way toward the Great Lakes through Wednesday, dragging the entire spectrum of active weather along its path. 

This system’s minimum central pressure could drop to around 980 mb by Wednesday, which is within a few millibars of the all-time March low air pressure records in places like Chicago. This is going to be a formidable storm—and its strength will reflect in the thunderstorms, winds, and wintry weather it produces.

Wind advisories and high wind warnings span much of the southern United States as this storm roars to life. These will be pressure gradient winds—simply winds kicked up by the low-pressure system’s rapid intensification, independent of the thunderstorms expected across the region. 

Cold air on the northern side of the system will drop heavy snowfall across the Plains and Upper Midwest, with blizzard conditions expected through parts of eastern Colorado and western Nebraska.

The most pressing concern, though, is a dayslong risk for severe thunderstorms.

An enhanced—level 3 out of 5—risk for severe weather exists across parts of the southern Plains on Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

Forecasters expect severe thunderstorms to develop across northern Texas and southern/central Oklahoma during the overnight hours. Storms may initially form as supercells before quickly congealing into a squall line. Tornadoes, damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, and large hail are all possible in these nocturnal thunderstorms.

The risk for severe thunderstorms will peak on Tuesday as strong wind shear meets up with ample instability over the Deep South. 

Monday night’s squall line will likely continue moving east toward the Mississippi River through the morning and afternoon hours on Tuesday, bringing the risk for damaging winds with embedded tornadoes.

Additional thunderstorms are possible ahead of that squall line. Any discrete thunderstorms that develop in this environment will be capable of producing strong tornadoes. The severe threat will continue as the squall line pushes through the region with the risk for damaging winds in excess of 70 mph. 

Our squall line will keep on trucking toward the East Coast overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday, shoving the risk for severe weather east.

Thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts as far north as Buffalo, New York, and as far south as Orlando, Florida. The greatest risk for damaging winds—and possibly an embedded tornado or two—will exist from the D.C./Baltimore area south through the Carolinas and into eastern Georgia. 

NOTE: The forecasts referenced in this article were issued by the National Weather Service, a critical federal agency that’s likely responsible for directly saving more lives than just about any other office in the government. The National Weather Service costs $3 per year per taxpayer.

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