Forecasters will remain busy this week as two concurrent stories unfold at the same time.
We’re watching a budding tropical system in the Gulf that’s likely to bring widespread flash flooding to portions of the south over the next couple of days.
There’s also a fairly serious severe weather event in the forecast during the day Wednesday, which could bring intense tornadoes to portions of Illinois and Indiana.
Severe Weather Threat
Let’s tackle this one first. The Storm Prediction Center issued a moderate (4/5) risk for severe weather across portions of Illinois and Indiana for the day Wednesday. This includes Springfield, Peoria, and Urbana.
A robust low-pressure system moving toward the Great Lakes will bring about all the favorable ingredients for severe thunderstorms to flourish with daytime heating on Wednesday.
This is a tornado-driven threat, with communities in and around the moderate risk zone sitting beneath a setup capable of producing intense (EF-3+) tornadoes.
As we typically see with situations like this, the tornado threat will be maximized in discrete supercell thunderstorms during the mid- to late-afternoon, and the main hazard will transition to damaging wind gusts as the storms congeal into squall lines toward the evening hours.
Gulf Tropical System
A significant weather event of a different flavor will play out just a bit farther to the south, where we continue to watch a tropical disturbance in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
This system, now called “Potential Tropical Cyclone One” by the National Hurricane Center, is forecast to grow into Tropical Storm Arthur before making landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday evening.
Named or not, widespread flooding rainfall will persist from Texas to Georgia over the next couple of days as surges of tropical moisture aloft blow inland.
Forecasters with the Weather Prediction Center have painted a moderate risk for excessive rainfall throughout much of the region, including the cities of Houston, Baton Rouge, Jackson, Birmingham, and Montgomery.
These areas are expected to see an additional 5-7+ inches of rain on top of what’s already fallen over the past couple of days. Portions of Texas and Louisiana have already seen more than 5 inches of rain since the beginning of last weekend.
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