A tropical disturbance in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will fuel repeated rounds of heavy rain over a large swath of the southern U.S. over the next couple of days.
This sizable area of unsettled weather will tap into a vast reserve of atmospheric moisture to produce widespread heavy rainfall from southern Texas east through Georgia.
The National Hurricane Center currently gives the disturbance a medium (50%) chance of developing into an organized system over the next couple of days.
A system doesn’t need to organize in order to create a significant hazard. Folks in this region are very familiar with unnamed disturbances causing more problems than some full-blown tropical storms. A disorganized disturbance brought extensive flooding to Louisiana in August 2016.
Forecasters expect widespread rainfall totals of 5-7+ inches over the next couple of days, mostly centered along and north of the coast from Houston to Mobile.
This kind of rain will lead to major flooding concerns, especially in areas where lots of rain falls in a short period of time.
One bright spot is that many of the areas in line for drenching rains are currently experiencing a long-term drought. This will go a long way toward helping to alleviate the major rainfall deficit we’ve seen build in recent months.
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